By
Aiya Anvarova
The
idea that the lower capital gains tax rates are a good thing for the economy
that spur investment, lead to job creation, encourage people to sell assets
without fear of tax consequences and actually raise total tax revenue has
rooted so deeply in the minds of Americans, both Republicans and Democrats,
that the Congress hardly has ever questioned the validity of this theory. However,
recent dismal economic slump has led many people to doubt some of the
principles of the American economy, including the premise that the lower capital
gains tax promotes economy. Despite the fact that it has become a common belief
that the low capital gains tax rates encourage active investment and economic
growth, there is no sound historic evidence to support this assumption.
Since
1950 capital gains have generally been taxed at a lower rate than income, to
spur investment. The rate under President George W. Bush went from 20 percent
to 15—the lowest ever—and was presented as a measure to stimulate the economy. However,
this approach didn’t bring any significant improvements in the state of
economy. In fact, the years following the 2003 tax cut were part of the most
dismal economic condition since the Great Depression. All the economic
indicators such as output growth, job creation, poverty reduction and
investment were all below average, if not all-time lows.
One
of the arguments in favor of the lower capital gain tax is that if capital
gains taxes are high, asset owners may be reluctant to sell their assets and
trigger the tax. Therefore, they hold onto the investment, resulting in an
inefficient allocation of capital that reduces growth. They will be willing to
spend the capital on consumption rather than invest it, again reducing economic
efficiency. In other words, if the capital gains taxs are high the capital owners will be unwilling to invest their assets that will lead the economy into stagnation.
However,
these arguments popularized by the Republicans don’t seem to be supported by
the history and the facts. There’s
no real evidence that a low capital gains tax rate boosts the stock market,
investment, or the economy in the long run, rather it will have some temporary effect. “I have
worked with investors for 60 years,” said Warren Buffet, “and I have yet to see
anyone — not even when capital gains rates were 39.9 percent in 1976-77 — shy
away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain.
People invest to make money, and potential taxes have never scared them off.”
In
fact, it hasn’t always been a foregone political conclusion that the capital
gains rate should be lower than that for income. The 1986 tax reform enacted by
President Ronald Reagan set capital gains at the same rate as the highest
personal income bracket, which was reduced from 50 to 28 percent. The reason
why Reagan’s administration decided to increase the capital gain tax was not an
ideological decision but rather an attempt to raise the money for the
government and this strategy worked. The
low tax rates on capital gains are also an important part of many individual
income tax shelters, which employ sophisticated financial techniques to convert
ordinary income to capital gains. The strategy of equalizing tax rates on
capital gains and ordinary income may help solve the problem of the enormous
tax avoidance spawned by the low capital gains tax as it will discourage
capital owners from hiding their income as an investment.
Based
on the historic evidences, including the effects of the 2003 unprecedented
capital gains tax cut, the low capital gains taxes don’t have direct long-term positive
impact on the savings, investment and economy, in general. Various independent
studies showed that there was no statistically significant correlation between
the capital gains tax and economic growth from 1950 to 2011. In fact, the
reduction in capital gains tax was often followed by the economic slump and
rising unemployment. Thus, the argument for lower capital gains rates rests
more on faith than science.
List
of References
Mufson
S., and Yang J. L. (2011. Sept. 11). Capital gains tax rates benefiting wealthy
feed growing gap between rich and poor. The
Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/
Stewart,
J. B. (2011, August 19). Questioning the
dogma of tax rates. New York Times.
Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/